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The Black Swan

by Geoffrey Hoppe

In social and business parlance, "black swans" are the unknown unknowns. The phrase entered into common use after Nassim Nicholas Taleb published his best-selling booked titled The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable in 2007. Taleb is a statistician, philosopher and former options trader.

According to Taleb, a black swan is an event "outside of the realms of our expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to it’s possibility." It was once believed that all swans were white, because only white swans had been seen. The belief was blown apart when a black swan was discovered in Australia. Hence the term "black swan."

Here’s another way to understand the black swan phenomenon: A turkey is fed at 9:00 AM every day for 1000 days. Everything in the turkey’s experience points to the certainty that it will be fed at 9:00 AM on day 1001. Instead, it finds itself on the butcher’s chopping block. That’s a big black swan for a white turkey.

The term is now used to describe sudden and unpredictable changes in our economy, politics and social structures. The collapse of the venerable Wall Street brokerage firms last year is a good example of a black swan. Who would have thought that oil would have gone up to $145 a barrel last year, and then back down to $40 a barrel in less than six months? It’s another black swan event because it’s never happened before. Could anyone have imagined that in 2009 all three of the Big Three U.S. auto companies would be on the verge of bankruptcy? Talk about three black swans in a row! And what about the U.S. electing a black president?

Black swans have always been present in our society but we didn’t pay a lot of attention to them because they were rare. But now, in the New Energy, the black swan of black swans is upon us: They are arriving in flocks. They came in last year in the financial and politics worlds. In this month’s Shoud, Tobias foresees unusual and severe weather patterns in 2009. He says these are not the direct result of global warming or a vengeful god, but rather a result of New Energy and dramatic changes in human consciousness. It will be a year of black swan weather.


Black swan events don’t follow the predictable path of established patterns and belief systems. They have a tendency to create chaos and anxiety when they suddenly and unpredictably collide with our normal cycles of life. The after-affect of a black swan is the clear potential for more black swans because the basic fabric of consciousness has been undermined. Trust in financial systems, governments, employers, doctors, nature and even Spirit is chipped away by doubt and uncertainty. This creates even more potentials for black swans, and the cycle of unpredictability and turmoil continues.

When trust breaks down, the delicate state of peace-of-mind is thrown off balance. The mind puts up every red flag it can find to warn the human of impending danger. The typical human goes into fear and anxiety in a desperate search to stave off potential disaster. Decisions are made based on over-reaction and drama, and the black swan cycle builds up even more momentum. Then you hear people talking about the End Times, the collapse of civilization as we once knew it, global meltdown and alien conspiracies. Sales of alcohol, bibles and underground bunkers go up. Drama is as thick as pea soup and the sexual energy virus is having a field day.

The New Energy Black Swan

The Quantum Leap in September 2007 was the beginning of the point of separation from the old to the new. According to Tobias, it’s not just a leap of consciousness. It’s about incorporating New Energy into our reality. Old energy is vibrational. New Energy is expansional. It doesn’t react like old energy and it’s not predictable like vibrational energy. (But it’s actually more responsive to our needs… once we learn how to work with it. Stay tuned to Adamus Saint-Germain’s post-Tobias channels for more information about how to actually work with New Energy.)

While the rest of the world grapples with black swans, Shaumbra can understand that it’s all a natural part of the transition into New Energy. When others are losing their balance and sense of security, we, as spiritual sociologists can be comforted in knowing that what Was… is no more. And what Will Be… is not based on the past. In the New Energy, tomorrow’s road is not paved with yesterday’s stones.

While analysts and trend-setters are scratching their heads trying to figure out "What’s Next?," Shaumbra can breathe deeply and know that no matter what, What’s Next will be profoundly appropriate. We’ll come to realize the joy of discovery and surprise, rather than the boredom and drudgery of old energy, white swan predictability. After all, what’s there to worry about if you intuitively know that everything is going to work out? Maybe not in the way you would have "predicted" it, but maybe in a New Energy way that is as brilliant and unique as the black swan.

Geoffrey and Linda Hoppe founded the Crimson Circle in 1999 and have guided it to what has now become a global affiliation of New Energy teachers with the purpose of inspiring consciousness.

Crimson Circle™, Shaumbra™, Tobias of the Crimson Council™, Tobias of the Crimson Circle™, and Adamus Saint-Germain™, are registered trademarks of Geoffrey Hoppe, Golden, Colorado USA. All rights reserved. Do not use in any manner or form without the express written consent of the copyright holder.